I know I'm not alone in noticing that ever since knucklebones were added, the success rate of obtaining a WW from the campaign has been noticably lower.

I really do not like when a site states they change things like encounter or success rates, but give the players literally no information on what was actually changed.

I know that the encounter rate was reverted to normal, but it really feels like the success rate was stealth nerfed and no one told us.

@Loki (sorry for the ping if you don't like those)

I recalled randomly seeing a mod comment on this recently & after a bit of digging I found the post. It's in this thread, and according to it, WW recruit rates are the same as at the start of the game.

Would mean it's just bad RNG unless the mods are out here actively lying straight to peoples faces to hide a stealth nerf. The wording of the post leaves pretty little to interpretation on the subject.

My personal WW grinding has felt pretty much the same as it ever was, both before and after the KB addition so I can't say I have firsthand experience in the rates feeling off. I will say I do agree that in future updates when numbers are tweaked, they should be put in the patch notes front and center to say just how much things changed.

Just to add to this, I have noticed that now that I have knucklebones it feels like the encounter rates are lower because I can now visually count how many fails I have, but when I compared it to my old encounter notes it actually turned out to be the same. It's possible that maybe now that you see how many knucklebones you are accumulating it feels like the rng is lower then it is?

@Nautilus No worries on the ping!

I totally agree that it can just be bad RNG, but something still feels very off. The change alone in the discord seeing people who would maybe get a 3-4 wolves over 3 days, are only getting one. More to the point why the devs need to be transparent about these changes so people can't speculate if it's bad luck, a bugged mechanic, or a stealth nerf.

@Loki I understand it feels like it's been nerfed, but they have been transparent. They've stated time and time again that the rates are back to normal, and honestly I'm surprised a mod hasn't commented to state so here. I have my doubts that the mods are being fed incorrect information as it's part of their job to answer questions about the game.

I totally agree that it can just be bad RNG, but something still feels very off. The change alone in the discord seeing people who would maybe get a 3-4 wolves over 3 days, are only getting one.

Are these people still grinding to the same schedule or have they decreased the time they spend grinding?

I used to get several WWs in a day, but after the update I have cut that time down significantly. So I'd be part of the group that isn't getting any WWs, but I'm also just not looking for them. I would also like to say that RNG does have stints; the first night I started WW hunting for people I got so many wolves, but the next few days got significantly less.

Also another thing to consider: even if the devs commented on this thread saying the rates were not nerfed, would you even believe them?

I do think there's something odd. I'm consistently going on streaks of 30-50+ without a successful WW encounter when before the update, those streaks were very rare and the 1-in-10 rate was much more believable. I don't think the devs are lying, but I do think it may be possible that a typo was made when bringing the rate back to normal - it's worth a dev looking into at least! It's an easy mistake to make and an equally easy mistake to miss. It's also quick and easy to double-check and confirm that yes, it's the same, players are just having especially bad luck lately.

I just wanted to add my experience for what it's worth because it's different than the concerns established here:

I got to my first 50 knucklebones yesterday. In the week it took me to get them, I successfully recruited 5 Wild Wolves from Explore.

I consider this to be exceptionally good luck. I've done worse in the past and I expect to do worse again at some point in the future. It will come and go. The potential for variance in one's experience cannot be underestimated when RNG is involved.

Staff reacted quickly to the issue when it first came up and changed numbers based on our feedback. They have been transparent. It's only been one week. If anyone's bad luck streaks are still happening multiple weeks from now, then there might be something to worry about.

The devs have also Never Confirmed the 10% rate, that was just player conjecture which may not reflect the truth and which personally feel is inaccurate. [but even if it is. 10% and “every tenth wolf on the dot will be caught” are just not the same thing]

I haven't noticed a real dip in the ww hunting discord channel showing off caught wolves however, so it's likely a mixture of now having a number to put on it at all times and some people's bad streaks coinciding with the change.

my experience is pretty much the same as it was before the KBs were added, and that's just the nature of rng. i've been getting less wolves because i am grinding less than i was before, but when i do grind my numbers pretty much go the same way they did before.

this is just the nature of rng and a percent based chance for anything, and confirmation bias is an absolutely wild thing. the staff have been transparent about the encounters, they were transparent when they were nerfed and they were transparent when it was changed back. they didn't give us numbers, but we don't need numbers, imo. it's also been stated by mods multiple times now that the rate is back to what it was in the beginning.

I trust staff on this one; my WW rates have felt the same as before, and in fact i dont have any KB yet because both of the wolves I've met since their launch i successfully took home. Some users had abyssmal encounter luck just due to the layered RNG involved, though if many people note abnormally low rates then it could be as simple as a bug or typo not allowing the rate to return to normal.