@Felius It's randomized and not guaranteed one way or the other to ensure a recruitment. For my own enjoyment I've started referring to days as “It's a bark/wag day" depending on what seems to be a more frequently successful recruitment. If you check out the latest dev update (see the banner at the top of the site marked Attention) you can see,
. . . we've been hard at work on the Wild Wolf befriend feature. Once finished, players will be awarded a Knucklebone Token after a failed Befriend Wild Wolf scenario. These tokens can then be exchanged for a free, randomly generated Wild Wolf. We hope this alleviates some concerns about the low rates of success for this scenario.
@Mapleshade They weren't kickstarted items as far as I'm aware, but were available from support bundles pre-launch. I believe they will periodically cycle through the Mole Market, just as the related companions from the bundles have (the Lapistrix and Ignatus). This is the same case in regards to the Enderlings and the glowing eyes apparel and banners, as those were also available as support bundles but are available in the Mole Market rotation.