Hello everyone! I would like to do a mass data gathering to see if our speculated rates match up with what the game is actually presenting.

Currently, speculation puts the WW encounter rate at 1 in 100, and the success rate of the encounter at 1 in 10.

Let's see if we're right!

How to Add Data

Click to access the spreadsheet (linked below) and enter your username in the username column to the left. In the next column (# of Encounters), put in your total campaign encounters. This is easily tracked by stamina bar. 1 stamina bar depleted = 20 encounters.

In the next column, # of WW Encounters, put in how many Wild Wolf encounters you have gotten.

Finally, in the # of WW Recruited, put how many wolves you have successfully recruited from the Wild Wolf encounters.

And you're done! When you farm more encounters, you can simply update your existing count on the spreadsheet.

IMPORTANT: Do NOT add any data where you do not have the # of campaign encounters, to avoid skewing the estimated WW encounter rate. If you have been tracking only how many WW encounters and successes you've gotten, please do not add those numbers in!

>>>Spreadsheet<<<

DISCLAIMER: This is data collected from users voluntarily. It does NOT reflect or stand in for developer statements and cannot be used with absolutely certainty until we have many thousands of data points. Please contribute, even if you only do a bit of campaign farming, because every encounter logged counts!

I haven't been keeping track of my full encounters, but I can say that I've been keeping track of WW encounters vs earned wolves, and that is putting me currently at 99 encounters vs 10 wolves gained.

Mostly spitballing a personal thought as a curious newbie, but do you think that location could influence how often the encounters crop up, too?

@Tsukistar

@Rhulk It's cool to see someone collecting the data! I have some data but I'm not sure that it quite fits in your spreadsheet neatly, so I didn't enter it.

You wrote that 1 stamina bar is 20 encounters, but I believe there is one encounter that doesn't deplete stamina, the “Discover: Something?” so you can have more than 20 per bar. I counted every single refresh including these encounters so if this data is supposed to exclude that one encounter type, it wouldn't be exactly the same sampling.

I was also a bit aggressive and refreshed over some WW, so I don't know the results of those encounters.

Here's where I documented what I did: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTbf5G9K3GxCBiDQn_X2yKs1mw_kddbtkbxqhrbQf4jTy6ckkdFjD7wfvC6D27ERfo597mjt5E4vMZP/pubhtml

I did all encounters in Goldsea, first area.
At the time of writing, I tracked 7282 total encounters (which I do by refreshing the page).
Of those, 81 were wild wolf encounters.
I accidentally refreshed over 16 wild wolves (lol).
Of the remaining 65 that I did attempt to recruit, I got 5.

The sample is still small, and 99% confidence interval currently includes 1/100 as a potential wild wolf encounter rate and 1/10 as potential recruitment rate (assuming devs like even numbers).

I'll continue to track my efforts and perhaps our data will match up in the end.

@Tsukistar I've been tracking refreshes vs WW encounters vs successes for different areas and so far there doesn't seem to be any difference (at least in Murkwood). I would make a spreadsheet so more people can contribute, but I haven't figured out a working layout yet rip.

Also, @Fury is right, the "Discover: Something?" encounter doesn't use up stamina…. which means my method of tracking encounters has a pretty significant error :/ I switched to tracking depleted stamina bars now, since I don't think I'll get an accurate count otherwise. Not as clean of a statistic, but it works.

So far, theres around a 28% chance for a WW encounter per depleted bar (im expecting that to round out to 25% or 30% - I'm just one person so I don't have that much data yet). The 10% success rate looks like it's accurate, since I'm also getting that.

@Fury @Voidrot

So, on testing that, it seems that only Goldsea's area doesn't deplete stamina. I've been running in Murkwood and a friend who runs in Icerun is currently confirming if it doesn't take stamina there, though they're pretty sure it doesn't. I don't know about Darkspine, but I can absolutely confirm that it takes stamina in Murkwood.

Which is… fascinating that the encounter isn't uniform among all areas. Not from any standpoint besides the fact that copy+pasting the encounter would be much easier for devs than doing it any other way lol. EDIT: I've been informed this a bug with Goldsea specifically by others, so there's that!

I'll have to reconsider our data. My runs are accurate because Murkwood takes stamina. As to everyone else, I might have to do some data scrapping. I've also been considering adding a part for people who just want to do success rate testing, as I've had a handful of people say they don't want to or can't track the total encounters.

oh great, I was in Murkwood so I can re-add my data c: I guess I'll just skip Goldsea then and speedrun the other quests.

@Rhulk it seems to be specifically Zanthous, Elius' Watch and Western Barrens both use up Stamina.

Gonna start contributing to this.

…Now to just figure out an app on my phone to use to track the encounters while I play on PC…

EDIT: For clarity, this is what I mean by Cheese Grinder:

I paused the campaign by not accepting the next quest, causing there to only be two possible encounters in Murkwood 4.

There's an equal chance of encounter Wilds as any other zone, but less chance of messing up.

EDIT 2: I'm done for now LOL, if anyone has suggestions of a better way of keeping track of encounters than a phone app, I'm all ears. I'd prefer a computer-based automatic solution, preferably an external one that reads the screen, but doesn't interfere with the site itself.

from darkspine; can confirm it takes stamina for the discover something option!