Hi! I have been tracking my Wild Wolf encounters since launch. @lalierre sat down with me last night and helped me make sense of my data. I'd like to share!

TL;DR: The success rate for Wild Wolf encounters is about 5%. This means you have about a 1-in-20 chance to befriend a wolf.

THE DATA:

• 147 wolves befriended
• 2328 encounters
• Overall success rate date range: 5/6/2023 - 9/27/2024 (2328 encounters)
• Adjusted rate date range: 7/1/2023 - 9/27/2024 (1846 encounters)

Above: each point is a befriended wolf.

Above: each tick is 500 encounters.

About the data:

According to my data, the initial success rate for befriending Wild Wolves was twice as high as it is currently. My lucky start to WW befriending skewed my estimated success rate A LOT. 5% seems to make the most sense when old data is removed.

I typically run in the third sword of Icerun and most of this data is from there, but I have befriended wolves all over.

For funsies: the luckiest I've been is befriending three wolves in back-to-back-to-back encounters. The unluckiest I've been is 94 encounters without befriending a wolf.

If you'd like to take a look at my raw data, or perhaps you'd like to start tracking WW encounters yourself, please check out what I have here: Google Sheet link.

Happy befriending!